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April 26, 2010

Ryan Seacrest Financial Times Profile

Read it here.

Once upon a time media personalities enjoyed ratings shares that are unheard of today: people like Ed Sullivan, Perry Como, and Johnny Carson in his prime could count on something like 1/3 of the country tuning in to see them every time they did a show. As media fragmented, many predicted that the age of the mega-celebrity would end, to be replaced by a long tail of niche celebrities.

It hasn't quite worked out that way. There are plenty of niche celebrities, but the mega-celebrity has not gone away. In his unassuming way, Ryan Seacrest is one of them. Through his various television, radio, and digital projects, he gets more regular face time with more Americans than any other person, with one possible exception.

And no one does a better job monetizing celebrity than Seacrest. Unlike many of his mass media peers, he recognizes that he is, at the end of the day, in the advertising business. His job is to generate advertising return on investment for marketers by aggregating audiences and associating his personal brand with the brands of others.

The author of this post is Nadav Manham, president of Elera Advisors LLC, an investment advisory company focused on value-oriented manager selection. Mr. Manham is a Manual of Ideas contributor and editor of The Investor's Consigliere.    

April 19, 2010

Malkiel is Bullish on China, Remains Efficient Market Proponent

By Ravi Nagarajan

Random Walk Down  Wall StreetBurton Malkiel, professor of economics at Princeton University, is the author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street and is currently preparing the tenth edition of the book.  In a recent Financial Times interview, Mr. Malkiel insists that the data continue to indicate that markets are efficient despite the turmoil of recent years.  He has found that the majority of active investors continue to underperform passive index funds over long periods of time.  In addition, his research indicates that the passive approach provides better results even in emerging markets such as China.

One objection to the formulation of Mr. Malkiel’s argument is that it is not necessary to claim that markets are “efficient” in order to agree with the recommendation that the majority of investors would be better served in passive index funds.  Since the majority of individual and professional investors can hardly be characterized as value investors, it is unsurprising that the results of most active portfolios would underperform the overall market over long periods of time.  However, it does not follow that markets are therefore “efficient”.  Instead, it appears that the majority of investors lack the discipline and methodology needed to produce superior results.

Warren Buffett’s famous article, The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville, was published over 25 years ago but remains a powerful reminder of how value investors can outperform the market using a common set of principles even though the application of these principles leads different investors to entirely different portfolios.  In recent years, value investing has been able to produce good returns during a time when the overall market has been essentially flat after years of roller coaster movements.

Mr. Malkiel’s recommendation is correct:  The majority of investors are best served in passive index funds.  But this is because of the inherent failings of poor analysis, human emotion and temperament rather than because the markets are “efficient”.

Mr. Malkiel makes his case for market efficiency in the Financial Times video below.  Click on the image to start the video.

The author of this post is a private investor and writer focused on applying value investing techniques to find securities trading well below intrinsic business value. He is a Manual of Ideas contributor and editor of The Rational Walk.

April 10, 2010

Must-Read Annual Letters by Public Company CEOs

Jamie Dimon annual letterWe'll be updating the following list throughout this year's public company annual meeting season:

April 09, 2010

Rubin: “I Did Not Want Significant Operational Responsibility”

By Ravi Nagarajan

Rubin And PrinceRobert Rubin received a total of more than $126 million in cash and stock compensation over a ten year period at Citigroup for serving as a board member and as a “strategic advisor” to senior management.  However, the role never had any clearly defined operational responsibilities as Mr. Rubin was quick to point out at a hearing of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission yesterday:

Let me know turn to Citigroup more specifically.  My role at Citi, defined at the outset, was to engage with clients across the bank’s businesses here and abroad; to meet with foreign public officials for a bank present in 102 countries; and to serve as a resource to the bank’s senior executives on strategic and managerial issues.

Having spent my career in positions with significant operational responsibility — at Treasury and Goldman Sachs — I no longer wanted such a role at this stage of my life, and my agreement with Citi provided that I would have no management of personnel or operations.

This brings to mind the old saying:  “Nice work if you can get it”.

While there is no doubt that Mr. Rubin brought a great deal to the table in terms of his contacts with foreign officials and experience in the industry, this situation always appeared to be an example of the revolving door between Washington and Wall Street that Simon Johnson criticized in his recent book, 13 Bankers, which we reviewed last month.

Was Mr. Rubin really hired for his expertise in the industry and the advice he could provide to senior management or to use his knowledge of government to pave the way for Citi to grow in size and influence to the point where it clearly became “too big to fail” in the recent crisis?  This is a legitimate question to ask in light of Mr. Rubin’s statement that he had no operational responsibilities and was unaware of serious problems until it was too late.

To be fair to Mr. Rubin, it is clear that Citi’s management (which undeniably did have “operational responsibilities”) entirely failed to manage risk properly.  While former CEO Charles Prince should get credit for expressing remorse at the hearings yesterday, he bears a great deal of responsibility for delegating key risk management tasks to a chief risk officer.

As Warren Buffett has stated on several occasions, risk management must be a core responsibility of a CEO and should never be delegated.  Mr. Prince obviously failed to follow this advice and instead famously stated that “as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.”

We have now seen what happens when the music stops and an institution is left only with incompetent management and senior advisors who disclaim any operational oversight responsibilities.

The author of this post is a private investor and writer focused on applying value investing techniques to find securities trading well below intrinsic business value. He is a Manual of Ideas contributor and editor of The Rational Walk. 

Alan 'Shaggy' Greenspan: It Wasn't Me

Alan Greenspan worst central bankerEzra Klein writes in The Washington Post:

In testimony before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission yesterday, Alan Greenspan pretty much adopted the Shaggy defense: Interest rates? It wasn't me. Deceptive lending practices? It wasn't me. Unchecked excesses on Wall Street? It wasn't me. They even got us to deregulate! It wasn't me.

Better culprits, according to Greenspan, included the fall of the Berlin Wall, Congress, developing economies, and systemic complexity. Left unanswered is what would've happened had Greenspan walked out and said that there's a global savings glut powering a housing boom that's being repackaged by a finance sector that has become too complicated to regulate and people should proceed with extreme caution and Federal Reserve regulators should adopt a more jaundiced eye.

Full testimony here (pdf). James Kwak has further commentary.

Alan Shaggy Greenspan's best friendFor the Shaggy fans out there, here are the lyrics Greenspan is reportedly considering singing in a duet with the Jamaican-American reggae singer:

But she caught me on the counter (It wasn't me)
Saw me bangin' on the sofa (It wasn't me)
I even had her in the shower (It wasn't me)
She even caught me on camera (It wasn't me)

She saw the marks on my shoulder (It wasn't me)
Heard the words that I told her (It wasn't me)
Heard the scream get louder (It wasn't me)
She stayed until it was over

April 08, 2010

Bogle: Alan Greenspan’s Testimony Was Disingenuous

By Ravi Nagarajan

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan testified today in Washington before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.  We suggested earlier this week that Mr. Greenspan and others who failed to foresee the crisis should simply accept responsibility and play a role in helping society learn from past mistakes in an effort to prevent similar problems from taking place in the future.  While Mr. Greenspan now admits that he was only correct “70 percent of the time”, he continues to minimize the role of monetary policy in the crisis.

In the video clip shown below, Vanguard Founder John Bogle comments on Mr. Greenspan’s “disingenuous” testimony.  Mr. Bogle looks with suspicion when policy makers say “mistakes were made”.  Instead he thinks they should say “I made mistakes”.  In general, it seems like very few people in leadership positions today are ever willing to make such a direct statement.

The author of this post is a private investor and writer focused on applying value investing techniques to find securities trading well below intrinsic business value. He is a Manual of Ideas contributor and editor of The Rational Walk.

April 07, 2010

Jim Grant on Alan Greenspan's Testimony: 'Self-Exculpating Nonsense'

Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer calls it like it is in a Bloomberg interview following former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony before Congress today.

Why anyone still pays any attention to what Greenspan has to say is hard to understand. It is hard to think of one individual more responsible for the financial blowup of 2008 than Alan Greenspan. His policies laid the foundation for the house of cards that was built during his time as Fed chairman. For him to claim that nothing could have been done by the Fed to prevent the crisis is laughable.

Here is Jim Grant on Alan Greenspan, The Worst Central Banker in History:

February 02, 2010

Robert Monks on (Lack of) Corporate Governance

My Photo

Corporate governance is a subject attracting much rhetoric and little change. With governance failures responsible in large part for corporate disasters, new and old, we find Robert Monks' commentary on the subject, and his efforts to change the status quo, a beacon of hope. Shareholder activist and corporate governance advisor Robert Monks recently gave a speech at Harvard Law School about the state of corporate governance. The entire speech was recorded (including the Q&A with students). Please click here to view the video.

We found the following passages from Mr. Monks' speech especially illuminating:

  • Three quarters of registered shareholders are fiduciary institutions.
  • We can no longer blindly accept the received wisdom as to the roles and responsibilities of owners, directors and CEOs. Categories simply do not perform as advertised.
  • It is naïve to think and act as if the current arrangement of power is not satisfactory to many who hold it. Our efforts will be a struggle for reallocation of that power.
  • The core problem has been the disappearance of any practical or legal respect for the fiduciary standards that ensure a beneficiary of the loyal competence of the person responsible for managing his property. We have tolerated conflicts of interest throughout the commercial system with the result of enriching service providers and impoverishing beneficiaries. Worse, this regulatory neglect has placed the conscientious fiduciary at a competitive disadvantage.
  • Is there genuine commitment to an ownership based governance system? [It must be said that no such commitment exists at present.] This commitment will need be made by government. If so:
    • There must be effective enforcement of existing law so as to require fiduciaries to take appropriate action to protect and enhance the value of portfolio securities, and
    • There must be arrangement for financing “activism” either as an appropriate corporate expense or as a designated portion of the investment management fees.
  • Peter Drucker has long raised the question as to whether the current standard of board functioning is so unsatisfactory as to require structural change. - “Whenever an institution malfunctions as consistently as boards of directors have in nearly every major fiasco of the last forty or fifty years it is futile to blame men.  It is the institution that malfunctions.”  In the years subsequent to Drucker’s characterization, the inability of any portion of the governance structure to deal effectively with holding top management to account - the “smoking gun” being executive compensation - compels the conclusion of continuing systemic board failure. If the shareholder cannot hold the CEO accountable for his compensation, he has no right to assume that he exercises effective accountability in any other area. 

January 26, 2010

The New Yorker on Richard Thaler

By Greenbackd

The New Yorker has John Cassidy’s interview with Richard Thaler, Chicago School economist and co-author (along with Werner F.M. DeBondt) of Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonality, a paper I like to cite in relation to low P/B quintiles and earnings mean reversion. Thaler is also the “Thaler” in Fuller & Thaler Asset Management, which James Montier identifies in his 2006 research report Painting By Numbers: An Ode To Quant as being a “fairly normal” quantitative fund (as opposed to being “rocket scientist uber-geeks”) with an “admirable track [record] in terms of outperformance.” I diverge from Thaler on a number of issues, but on these two I think he’s right:

On the remnants of efficient markets hypothesis:

Well, I always stress that there are two components to the theory. One, the market price is always right. Two, there is no free lunch: you can’t beat the market without taking on more risk. The no-free-lunch component is still sturdy, and it was in no way shaken by recent events: in fact, it may have been strengthened. Some people thought that they could make a lot of money without taking more risk, and actually they couldn’t. So either you can’t beat the market, or beating the market is very difficult—everybody agrees with that. My own view is that you can [beat the market] but it is difficult.

The question of whether asset prices get things right is where there is a lot of dispute. Gene [Fama] doesn’t like to talk about that much, but it’s crucial from a policy point of view. We had two enormous bubbles in the last decade, with massive consequences for the allocation of resources.

On stock market bubbles:

[Cassidy] When I spoke to Fama, he said he didn’t know what a bubble is—he doesn’t even like the term.

[Thaler] I think we know what a bubble is. It’s not that we can predict bubbles—if we could we would be rich. But we can certainly have a bubble warning system. You can look at things like price-to-earnings ratios, and price-to-rent ratios. These were telling stories, and the story they seemed to be telling was true.

And I love this line in relation to the impact of the recent crisis on behavioral economics:

I think it is seen as a watershed, but we have had a lot of watersheds. October 1987 was a watershed. The Internet stock bubble was a watershed. Now we have had another one. What is the old line—that science progresses funeral by funeral? Nobody changes their mind.

Science progresses funeral by funeral. Nobody changes their mind. It seems to me it’s not the only discipline that proceeds by funeral.

November 25, 2009

Best advice: Gates on Gates

Bill Gates and Bill Gates Sr"The father-and-son duo talk about what it was like growing up Gates as they reflect on the advice that has influenced their careers and their relationship." Excerpt:

Bill, I'd like to ask you about the best advice that you've ever gotten from your dad.

Bill Gates: Well, my dad and my mom were great at encouraging me as a kid to do things that I wasn't good at, to go out for a lot of different sports like swimming, football, soccer, and I didn't know why. At the time I thought it was kind of pointless, but it ended up really exposing me to leadership opportunities and showing me that I wasn't good at a lot of things, instead of sticking to things that I was comfortable with. It was fantastic, and now some of those activities I cherish. They had to stick to it because I pushed back a lot, but it was fantastic advice.

Read the full article.

November 15, 2009

Warren Buffett & Bill Gates at Columbia Business School (complete video)

Here is a CNBC video of the complete event with Bill Gates and Warren Buffett at Columbia University on November 12, 2009. Read the transcript.

November 12, 2009

Gates on Google's "Gigantic Success" (video)

November 09, 2009

The Manual of Ideas on R. C. Willey and How to Build a Business Warren Buffett Would Buy (audio)

RC Willey, Bill Child, Warren BuffettWe are pleased to bring you an exclusive 98-minute audio program on the story of R. C. Willey, a Utah-based furniture retailer Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway purchased for $175 million in stock in 1995. The program introduces the listener to Jeff Benedict's excellent book, How to Build a Business Warren Buffett Would Buy, which we highly recommend. It is an easy, inspirational read that provides valuable insight into the business philosophy of entrepreneur Bill Child as well as into Warren Buffett's way of approaching family-owned businesses for purchase by Berkshire Hathaway. In the audio program, John Mihaljevic, CFA, managing editor of The Manual of Ideas, walks the listener through key events and anecdotes from the rich history of R. C. Willey.

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Additional resources on the R.C. Willey story:

Do you receive Portfolio Manager's Review in the mail each month? Then you are eligible for a FREE copy of Jeff Benedict's book on R. C. Willey. Email us to request it.

October 20, 2009

Interesting Look at JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon

jamie dimon jp morganUS News has a fascinating, short interview on Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan. Rick Newman talks to Duff McDonald, author of a new Dimon biography entitled Last Man Standing. Here are excerpts:

Over the course of the financial crisis, JPMorgan Chase remained profitable, a pillar of relative stability in the midst of an earthquake. The bank absorbed the failed Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual, while accepting $25 billion in bailout money that it paid back with interest once the government allowed it to. Through it all, Dimon consulted frequently with officials in Washington, and news reports have even depicted him as President Barack Obama's favorite banker. A new biography of Dimon, Last Man Standing by Duff McDonald, describes Dimon as a diligent and trustworthy executive who has risen above the swill of Wall Street. I spoke recently with McDonald about the man some think will be the next treasury secretary. Excerpts:

Jamie Dimon is clearly a survivor. Is he that smart or just lucky? Of course there's luck in any career, but wasn't it Seneca who said, "Luck is when preparation meets opportunity"? Jamie is the guy who was ready to take advantage of opportunities when they happened. So I don't really think it's luck at all. Jamie has proved that preparation is all there is on Wall Street.

How do you think of Dimon today? He's the most prominent banker in America, and if there is such a thing as a financial philosopher, Jamie's it. His letter to shareholders in the 2008 JPMorgan Chase annual report was a tour de force of explicatory brilliance. He explained what happened.

Was it Dimon talking? Or corporatespeak? It was totally Jamie talking. He explained the risk exposures, which were mostly mortgages. Where we went wrong, ways the system can be improved. He explained: Is JPMorgan caught up in this? Yes. But he's aware of the exposure. This is a guy who wrote the letter while still in the midst of the crisis, since he began writing it at the end of 2008.

How is Dimon different from other Wall Street CEOs? I was talking to Warren Buffett about Jamie, and he said, "Banking's not that difficult. You just need to be a banker, and Jamie's a banker." All these other guys weren't being bankers, they were being gamblers. There's a great line from Andrew Ross Sorkin's new book, Too Big to Fail. At some point during the crisis last year, an executive from Morgan Stanley gets a call from Jamie and goes to talk to John Mack [Morgan Stanley CEO]. He says that he just got a call from Jamie Dimon, who asked if he can do anything to help. The executive says, "Jamie is always hanging around the hoop. You know Jamie's saying, 'Let's make friends with these guys before I eat them.' "His entire career he's played it conservatively so he can pounce on opportunity. All these other guys were gamblers. Bear Stearns. Lehman. That's fine, but Dimon was the guy standing around the hoop waiting for the ball.

How do you see the new Wall Street firmament? Goldman Sachs is clearly still a betting house, and that's fine. I understand the debate over taxpayer dollars going to these firms, and that will go on for a long time. But Goldman is clearly the best at what it does. Morgan Stanley is a betting house, and then you have Citigroup and Bank of America, which are just kind of screwed up. The bank of the moment is JPMorgan Chase. Other than Goldman, JPMorgan Chase and Jamie Dimon are the kings of Wall Street. On investment banking they go toe-to-toe with Goldman.

Was the Bear Stearns takeover in March of 2008 a good deal? The Federal Reserve bore a lot of the risk for that deal. Jamie Dimon will tell you he felt a patriotic imperative in doing what he did. He was asked to take over a $400 billion balance sheet from a firm that everybody knew was the dodgiest on Wall Street. In 48 hours. It turned out to be a big loser. They've already booked substantial losses. The assets they backed, they've lost a ton of money on. They got a decent commodities business and a prime brokerage business, but they lost money. Buying Bear Stearns was not a good deal in and of itself. But it worked out beautifully because it made them the bank of last resort. That helps you get customers. No one's leaving Chase, the retail bank. And JPMorgan's institutional business boomed at the end of 2008.

What's Jamie Dimon like? He's a fun person with a sense of humor. He's a CEO, so he's somewhat unapproachable, but he's a nice guy. I've never met a man who has less doubt about who he is. He has a sense of conviction and no second thoughts. He's also a total family man. He has three daughters who love him and a wonderful wife. They have a house in upstate New York and a nice apartment on Park Avenue. He spends time with his family and doesn't do the really obvious things, like golf. He just works all the time. The wonderful thing about the Dimons is they don't seek publicity.

Is he humble? No. He's proud. He knows what he's accomplished. He's well aware of his own capabilities and his achievements. The difference is, he's not resting on his laurels. He thinks. He's diligent.

Does he have a future in public office? I don't think Jamie Dimon would ever run for office. He wouldn't put his family in that position or deal with the attendant issues. But would he accept an appointment? Don't be surprised if he does. When Obama got elected, there were rumors that Dimon would end up in Washington. I asked him why he didn't shoot down the rumors. He said, "Isn't it kind of presumptuous to turn down a job you haven't been offered?" But if he were offered the position of treasury secretary, it's almost a slam-dunk he would take it. It's the only thing he has left to do--public service. He told me that his one regret is never having done any public service, and he'd like to.

He's a Democrat? He's a Democrat.

Why? Because he comes from a free-thinking family. His father played violin in their living room during social events when he was growing up. The family talked about a lot of things beyond just the day-to-day. He was exposed to different ideas.

What have been the toughest moments in his career? Being fired in 1998 by Sandy Weill [Dimon's former mentor and CEO of Citigroup at the time]. He's still hurt.

What did he learn from that? He learned how not to be Sandy. How not to fire your most valuable person in a fit of pique.

Could Jamie Dimon be more than a CEO? Could he be a transformative figure? He could be. There's a deep sense of integrity that guides his decision making. The guy is motivated. He absolutely wanted to be rich, and he is rich. Paired with that is a deep sense of doing the right thing. Despite what populist anger seems to be suggesting these days, these are not inconsistent beliefs in America.

Read the entire article. Read Dimon's 2008 letter to shareholders.

October 04, 2009

The Manual of Ideas on Business Leader Henry Singleton, Founder of Teledyne (audio)

Henry Earl Singleton, TeledyneWe are pleased to bring you an exclusive 115-minute audio program on the strategy and tactics behind the business achievements of Henry Earl Singleton (1916-99), founder of Teledyne. The program is presented by John Mihaljevic, CFA, managing editor of The Manual of Ideas. John walks the listener through key passages of Dr. George A. Roberts's biography of Henry Singleton, entitled Distant Force, and opines on the keys to Singleton's success. Author John Train has credited Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett as saying that Singleton has "the best operating and capital deployment record in American business."

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July 28, 2009

Jamie Dimon Speaks at Harvard Business School's Class Day 2009 (Video)


Thanks to David Lau for the link.

July 14, 2009

Max Otte on Value Investing: The Numbers Should 'Scream At You' -- Live Blogging the Value Investing Seminar, Italy

Max Otte, professor of Corporate Finance at Fachhochschule Worms in Germany, gave a presentation at the Value Investing Seminar in Italy today, entitled Investing Buffett Style: A Simplified Approach. Our notes from his speech follow:

  • Likes Simple and Robust Valuation Approaches (shares Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) chairman Warren Buffett's aversion of calculators and spreadsheets --> answers should "scream at you")
  • Some Examples of Simple Valuations for Stock Markets include market cap to GDP, P/Es based on 10-year earnings, dividend yields vs. bond yields
  • Importance of Organizing One's Research According to 1) Reliability (eg current margins are better information than estimated margins 2 years from today) and 2) Underlying Strategic Assumption (does company have competitive advantage?

Valuation Approaches:

  • Asset-Based Valuation (can be applied to 70% of companies): industry is economically viable but no incumbent competitive advantage --> asset value (replacement costs) = earnings power value 
  • Earnings Power Valuation, Without Growth (can be applied to 20% of companies): industry is viable, firm enjoys sustainable competitive advantage (moat, franchise) but no/low growth
  • Earnings Power Valuation, With Growth (can be applied to 5% of companies): industry is viable, firm enjoys sustainable competitive advantage (moat, franchise) and exhibits growth
  • Liquidation Valuation (can be applied to 5% of companies): industry is NOT economically viable

Investment Idea #1: Lufthansa (DLAKY.PK) (Asset Based):

    • One of the world's leading airlines
    • Will survive crisis
    • Valuable Frankfurt hub
    • Valuation: current market cap at 38% discount to book value of equity 

Investment Idea #2: Henkel (HENKY.PK) (Sustainable Earnings, Low Growth Franchise):

    • Consumer franchise
    • Depressed earnings
    • Stable company
    • Positive family influence but not very dynamic
    • Valuation: apply 14.3x multiple (assumes cost of capital 9%, growth 2%) on 10-yr average EPS of €3.42 --> €48.9 value per share --> current price of €18.6 per share represents 62% discount to fair value

Investment Idea #3: Siemens (SI) (Sustainable Earnings, Modest Growth):

    • One of the world's leading infrastructure companies
    • Huge pent-up demand
    • Economic warfare by US interests a negative
    • Valuation: apply 16.7x multiple (assumes cost of capital 10%, growth 4%) on 10-yr average EPS of €3.41 --> €56.8 value per share --> current price of €46.0 per share represents 18% discount to fair value

Investment Idea #4: Fielmann (Sustainable Earnings, Modest Growth Franchise):

    • Very consistent franchise
    • Huge moat
    • Owner manager
    • No bank debt
    • Valuation: apply 33.3x multiple (assumes cost of capital 8%, growth 5%) on 10-yr average EPS of €1.71 --> €56.9 value per share --> current price of €45.0 per share represents 21% discount to fair value

About Professor Max Otte

Professor Max Otte, Ph.D., received his doctorate degree from Princeton University. He is a regular professor of Corporate Finance at the Fachhochschule Worms – University of Applied Science and founder of IFVE GmbH, an independent advisory firm that offers financial information services to its clients. Professor Otte is also founder and director of the non-profit organization Zentrum für Value Investing e.V., an association of independent and value-oriented funds managers and investors. Professor Otte has worked as a consultant for over 100 businesses and organizations and is author of many books on finance and economics. His 2006 book “Der Crash kommt”, in which he predicted a financial tsunami caused by the U.S. subprime sector, has become a bestseller.

Disclosure: No positions.

Interesting Links

1. Fachhochschule Worms

2. IFVE

3. Zentrum für Value Investing  

May 13, 2009

Bill Gates's Book Recommendations

Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates recommends the following books:

Books by Bill Gates:

Books about Bill Gates:

Speech in which Bill Gates recommended Word Hard. Be Nice.:

April 29, 2009

John Malone in wide-ranging interview with Denver Business Journal

Cable industry pioneer John Malone, founder and chairman of Liberty Media (NASDAQ: LCAPA), spoke with the Denver Business Journal in a three-part interview published on April 27-29, 2009. In the interview, Malone shares some interesting views on the cable industry, Liberty Media, Sirius Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI), EchoStar (Nasdaq: SATS), and IAC/InterActiveCorp (Nasdaq: IACI). Malone also talks "big picture," putting himself in the camp of those who believe the government's actions are likely to trigger higher inflation.

Malone and Liberty Media are large shareholders or outright owners of a portfolio of media-related businesses, including satellite broadcaster DirecTV (Nasdaq: DTV), Expedia (Nasdaq: EXPE), Home Shopping Network, QVC home shopping channel, Starz Entertainment movie channel, Ticketmaster (Nasdaq: TKTM), and Ascent Media (Nasdaq: ASCMA).

Malone on the market outlook assuming improvement in the credit environment:

  • "The simplistic thing is if interest rates come back, and cash availability — leverage availability — comes back, then multiples will come back. Entrepreneurs will always be able to take an asset, leverage it up, operate it tightly and make it worth money to them and get good equity returns. If you see debt capacity return, you’ll see private equity come in and swallow these businesses that are trading at low multiples because they can generate very high returns. Even if you don’t postulate high growth rates, you can generate high equity returns if you can leverage them up. That’s why the past four or five years had been huge for private equity."

On the likely solution to the government's debt problem:

  • "I’m a believer that — and this becomes philosophical as opposed to mathematical — that we will end up monetizing our deficit and monetizing our future commitments as a country. There’s just no available source of funding. The administration can talk about raising taxes on rich people, but therich people just aren’t very rich any more, in case anybody’s looked."

On how Liberty is positioned to take advantage of his macro view:

  • "...most of Liberty’s liabilities are very long term and fixed, and those represent a pretty darned good bet on inflation. Our cash is basically all very liquid, very short term, very safe. We’re sitting with cash looking for opportunity and with liabilities looking to be devalued by government policy. That’s our philosophical view of how we sit right at the moment. Where we are using cash, we’re using it both strategically and with high yields. The Sirius deal is a great example. We’re sitting in a senior position in a business that’s clearly worth more than the senior liabilities, and [we’re] yielding quite attractive current interest rates. So, high yield, senior secured and strategic."

On the competitive landscape today:

  • On DirecTV versus Comcast: "DirecTV has that national footprint now, which is a huge advantage for DirecTV relative to any cable company, ... even in the case of Comcast, which covers only 22 percent of the country. This is a story yet to play out, because, as 4G, or wireless broadband, comes in and becomes more potent in terms of its data-rate capacities and its ubiquitousness, the bundle of 4G services with satellite and DSL or an enhanced DSL starts to become a very competitive service relative to cable."
  • On Charlie Ergen of EchoStar (Nasdaq: SATS) and his pursuit of Sirius Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI): "Nobody’s really put Charlie on the couch to figure out why, but the theory is that there may be some applications there for mobile video. They have their terrestrial repeating network, which is 800 sites now, and the frequencies they have. The question is: can you blend that all together? And obviously we’re now deeply involved in theSirius thing, and we think we’re going to win."
  • On Liberty's "counter-pursuit" of Sirius: "Initially it’s a financial play, but it’s also strategic. Obviously we have a large stake in DirecTV, and how Sirius could play into that is an important consideration, but it’s not on the table today. What’s on the table today is, let’s understand Sirius and its assets. Let’s help it avoid either bankruptcy or a takeover by somebody they didn’t want to be taken over by, and let’s study it for a while and then decide what the right moves forward are. ...if Charlie [Ergen] has a great idea on how to exploit the [Sirius] asset, we may end up doing something with Charlie. Our skills here, internally, are very much in financial engineering. We thought it was an opportunity to use our financial engineering skills to help keep a company alive and independent and see where it goes."
  • On IAC/InterActiveCorp. (Nasdaq: IACI): "...there’s not a lot of downside risk in IAC because the shares are trading pretty close to cash. Even if their operating business turns around, it’ll have relatively small effect on their stock value. The real issue in IAC is, what does Barry spend the cash on? If he finds something really terrific, watch us pile back into the stock. If he just sits on the cash, there’s no particular reason for us to own the stock. We might as well own the cash ourselves as own a pro rata share of his cash, which is where it trades right now. As Greg [Maffie, Liberty Media’s CEO] has said, it really no longer has much strategic element for us. The businesses inside IAC — which are principally Ask.com, which really needs to combine with other search engines; and then there’s Match.com, unless we all want dates ... and most of us are married, so Match.com’s not really strategic for us — there’s really not much in IAC that would be strategic with our businesses. The businesses that [Diller] spun off, on average, are really more synergistic with us than the ones that he kept."
  • On the IAC/InterActiveCorp. spinoffs completed in 2008: "...the timing couldn’t have been worse. You’re creating low-cap type businesses that original shareholders couldn’t continue to own, so there was a lot of redistribution going on. Those companies are all in a space where the economy is hurting their current results, and their stocks are trading at ridiculously cheap multiples. But you can’t buy the company. You can buy some shares."

On the evolution of the cable industry:

  • On moving out to Denver to join TCI in the early 70s: "I was running the largest division of General Instruments, but — that would’ve been 1972, so I was 31 years old — and they thought I was too young to be the CEO of GI... I decided it would be better to bring up a young family here than it would in New York..."
  • On lessons learned at TCI in the 70s: The difficult financing environment taught TCI and Malone to "not expose yourself to one financial source, diversification of every kind, isolation of financial risk, and how to bootstrap. It taught us a lot of things. It taught us survival skills, I think that is the No. 1 thing."
  • On picking a valuation metric for the nascent cable industry: "We decided... to go on a cash flow metric very much like real estate. Levered cash flow growth became the mantra out here. A number of our eastern competitors early on were still large industrial companies — Westinghouse, GE, — and they were on an earnings metric. It became obvious to us that if you were going to be measured on earnings, it would be real tough to stay in the cable industry and grow. We needed to be measured much more like real estate as anindustry."
  • On using debt as a way to fund growth: TCI and others were expanding by leverage; we were buying assets for cash, basically. It made our earnings look awful, but it meant were sheltered from income tax and we weren’t diluting that common equity. ...in the cable industry, if you start generating earnings that means you’ve stopped growing and the government is now participating in what otherwise should be your growth metric."
  • On the power of leveraged financing: "I used to say in the cable industry that if your interest rate was lower than your growth rate, your present value is infinite. That’s why the cable industry created so many rich guys. It was the combination of tax-sheltered cash-flow growth that was, in effect, growing faster than the interest rate under which you could borrow money. If you do any arithmetic at all, the present value calculationtends toward infinity under that thesis."
  • On cable operators and content providers: "... [if] there’s money flowing in to create programming that’s going to differentiate cable from broadcast — we were 100 percent in favor of that. But the downside of that was these entities, be it ESPN or MTV, were going to developleverage over us and be able to extract large fees."
  • On content providers capturing a bigger share of the economics: "...there’s been a big shift in the economics of the business to the programming conglomerates. Once the government passed retransmission consent, there was this huge sucking sound... It was wealth going from the cable industry to the programming conglomerates, whether it was Disney or News Corp. When all of a sudden, Fox News costs a cable operator a buck a month [per subscriber] and you used to think it was free, all of that is size driven. It’s the law of nature. Big bubbles get bigger, small bubbles disappear — it’s surface tension, the law of physics; and in business it’s scale economics."
  • In 1999, AT&T acquired Malone's TCI for $46 billion. Following the TCI acquisition, AT&T bought US West cable spinoff MediaOne for $58 billion, outbidding Comcast. On AT&T's decision not to create a tracking stock for TCI -- and the impact of that decision on the MediaOne deal: "...they didn’t do a tracker for the cable thing. So right up front, because [of] internal politics inside AT&T, they couldn’t get to it. They thought they could live without it. As a result, when the telephone business started to go to hell, they didn’t have a currency other than cash. They wanted to keep growing but they didn’t have a currency, so their deals — like the MediaOne deal ... that was the Rubicon that they crossed that they shouldn’t have crossed — they didn’t have a currency to buy MediaOne and to out-compete Comcast, so they did it with a very cash-heavy guaranteed deal: guaranteed their stock price, put too much cash in it and financed all of it with short-term money, all of which was a disaster and led them to have to, basically, liquidate all of AT&T. Great strategy and terrible execution led to what I would regard, personally, as a fiasco."

Read the full interview at the Denver Business Journal website.

Disclosure: No positions.

April 02, 2009

Hank Greenberg Testifies on AIG

AIG founder and former chairman Maurice "Hank" Greenberg testified today during a House Oversight Committee hearing.

February 13, 2009

Bill Gates: How I'm trying to change the world now (VIDEO)

February 11, 2009

Wall Street CEOs Grilled

Several high-profile Wall Street CEOs were hauled before a Congressional Committee this morning.  They received a grilling by the assembled legislators.  The harsh treatment was hardly a surprise given how unpopular Wall Street has become, and deservedly so. 

However, the legislators grilling the bank execs are the same legislators who contributed to the mess we're in by engaging in all sorts of cheerleading while the bubble was in full swing, including letting Fannie and Freddie underwrite bad loans.  The politicians have a lot to answer for, but who is going to drag them before a committee?

Read the full testimonies:

Watch Barney Frank ask the CEOs why they need bonuses:

February 01, 2009

HBS-Educated Entrepreneurs Share Their Insights (video library)

Here is a great resource courtesy of Harvard Business School.  The site features insights by the following HBS-educated entrepreneurs:

Paul Baier

PurchasingCenter.com

Frank Batten

Landmark Communications/Weather Channel

Steven Belkin

TNT Group

Hakeem Belo-Osagie

United Bank for Africa

Scott Cook

Intuit

Howard Cox

Greylock

Michael Danzi

US Labs

William Donaldson

Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette

Dermot Dunphy

Sealed Air Corporation

Charles Ellis

Greenwich Associates

Orit Gadiesh

Bain & Company

Philip Hendrickson

Krueger International

Robert Higgins

Highland Capital Partners

Richard Jenrette

Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette

Dean LeBaron

Batterymarch Financial Management

Erling Lorentzen

Lorentzen Empreedimentos/Aracruz Celulose S.A.

Dan Lufkin

Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette

Thomas Murphy

Capital Cities

Joseph O'Donnell

Boston Concessions

Robert Reiss

R&R

Arthur Rock

Venture Capitalist

James Sharpe

Extrusion Technology

Carl Sloane

Temple, Barker, and Sloane

C.D. Spangler

C.D. Spangler Construction Co.

Thomas Stemberg

Staples

Thomas Weisel

Thomas Weisel Partners

John Whitehead

Goldman Sachs

 

January 28, 2009

Stiglitz at Davos: We Need More Investment, Not More Consumption

Economics Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz spoke to Bloomberg at Davos. Stiglitz favors quick government action the bailout. He also calls the IMF and U.S. Fed hypocritical.

Watch the interview.

Jiabao at Davos: Strengthen Confidence And Work Together

Wen Jiabao, Premier of China, spoke at Davos today. Watch the speech or read the transcript. Listen to the podcast.

Putin at Davos: Finding Mutual Trust A Key Goal

Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin spoke during the opening session at Davos today. The speech was quite an exercise in oratory. First, Putin stated the following:

In the last few months, virtually every speech on this subject started with criticism of the United States. But I will do nothing of the kind.

Putin then went on to criticize the U.S., though not by name. Here is a dig at the dollar-centric global financial system, with Putin asserting that the days of the supremacy of the U.S. Federal Reserve are numbered:

The entire economic growth system, where one regional centre prints money without respite and consumes material wealth, while another regional centre manufactures inexpensive goods and saves money printed by other governments, has suffered a major setback.

For the record, we find this kind of Soviet-era style oratory, where you say one thing but mean another, unacceptable. If Putin has a problem with the U.S., he should say so clearly and then propose some equally clear solutions. Nobody will resolve anything with the kind of two-faced approach Putin put forth today.

With this criticism of Putin's speech out of the way, we have to admit the U.S. deserves to be criticized. Our financial system has failed miserably. Our banks and corporations have failed, our regulators have failed, our Yale- and Harvard-educated executives have failed, and our investors have failed. Did we leave out anyone?

So, we don't blame Putin for having taken the U.S. to task in his speech. we just disagree with the way he did it. Oh, and have we made it clear that we don't think Putin is the guy to offer credible solutions?

Read the speech.  Watch the speech.  Listen to the podcast.

January 15, 2009

Ted Turner: An entrepreneur worthy of study

As investors, we often wonder how some start-ups can grow from virtually nothing into dominant global franchises. The story of Ted Turner and CNN, while providing no definitive answers, is fascinating.

If you spend some time listening to Ted Turner, the intangibles that enabled him to become successful should become abundantly clear. We highly recommend the videos below, especially the 2004 interview with Charlie Rose. Watch this interview first, as you're bound to be enlightened as well as entertained.

Once you've seen the 2004 Charlie Rose interview, we highly recommend checking out an interview series with Ted Turner by the Archive of American Television. While the rookie interviewer is clearly out of his league, he gets better as the interview goes on -- Turner's no-nonsense style clearly has a positive effect. In the series, Turner tells his life story in engaging and inspiring fashion. You'll find yourself on a virtual trip into American business history.


Charlie Rose interview with Ted Turner, July 2004:


Charlie Rose interview with Ted Turner, April 2008:


Michael Eisner interviews Ted Turner:


Watch Ted Turner interview by Michael Eisner in Entertainment Videos  |  View More Free Videos Online at Veoh.com

December 20, 2008

Lighter fare -- Neil DeGrasse Tyson: Death by black hole

Popular astrophysicist -- and, apparently, part-time comedian -- Neil DeGrasse Tyson gives an interesting and funny talk on "ways to die" in our universe and elsewhere.

December 15, 2008

Learning From the Late Richard Feynman (Video)

In the spirit of Charlie Munger's latticework of mental models, we recommend a wonderful interview with Richard Feynman, the late physicist and Nobel Laureate.

It is impossible to do this interview justice in a brief summary. Suffice it to say that it exposes Feynman as one of those rare creatures who are truly in love with their chosen subject -- and with life itself. Buffett is another such individual.

Part 1 of 6:



Part 2 of 6:

Part 3 of 6:

Part 4 of 6:

Part 5 of 6:

Part 6 of 6:

December 14, 2008

Joseph Stiglitz on What the Government Should Do on Housing (Video)

Watch Economics Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz speak on current macroeconomic issues (presented on November 14th). Watch a highlight of his speech or the entire event. We also recommend browsing around the FORA.tv website, as it contains a lot of great content on economics and public policy.

For Stiglitz fans, we also recommend watching his Authors@Google talk on globalization in October 2006.